I wont go into the mistakes in the article as there are many but its good to try and understand another countries points of view even if some are not based in fact.
A hypothetical scenario of year 2014 by Zaid Hamid October 28,2010
Road to Ghazwa-e-Hind — The real possibility and the scenario of a major nuclear war between Pakistan and India involving all major civilizations
The assassination of one man in Bavaria triggered the First World War, which killed over 10 million people. The rise to power of one dictator in Germany initiated the Second World War, which killed 30 million more; and those were conventional wars fought with first generation planes, tanks and machine guns. Ironically, the concept of ‘war’ is an inherent inevitability of human psyche and therefore, cannot be eliminated either from the present or from the future. One can only prepare for it.
As history has taught us on numerous occasions, no nation has ever suffered or regretted preparing for a war. On the contrary, those who have neglected the war preparations according to the requirements of technology and threats of their time have suffered terrible consequences. The next war on civilizational axis is inevitable. Only the time frame can be argued. That will also not be a conventional war and will not limit itself to war zones or battle lines. There will neither be any neutrals nor any victors – just survivors. The victors being those who will manage to survive the holocaust, during and after.
There can be no nuclear doctrine in any nuclear armed country, which does not account for Survivability: survival of civilian population, survival of strategic food and fuel assets, survival of strategic military and economic assets, survival of delivery mechanism for second strike options and above all survival of national will to rise from the ashes and rebuild again, fending off the scavenger civilizations who will be pouring in from all directions to take advantage of the national calamity. The nuclear guidebook without the chapter on survival is flawed, defective and should be relegated to the trash bin.
Pakistan has yet to take even the first basic steps in the direction of National Survival Strategy. By not preparing for a nuclear exchange and fallout scenario NOW, our leaders, military planners and strategists would be making a suicidal mistake which will not just cost tens of millions of lives but will also revert the country to the stone age, incapable of surviving the inevitable. It has to be done now when we have the fiscal space and economic resources to plough back into the national survival strategy on war footings. Each passing day closes a window for us.
Under the already emerging scenario of Indian 4GW and the Cold Start doctrine, this paper is a “worst case” analysis and an attempt to predict the possible flow of events in not so distant a future, in near realistic environment, based on current global and regional conflict development trends and fault lines. It is also intended as a warning for the national leadership about the future as seen from the prism of today’s regional dynamics. Even if our threat assessment, scenario analysis, or time line is questioned by other pundits, Pakistan can only benefit and gain by preparing for such a scenario for which almost all nuclear armed countries (and otherwise nations) are either already prepared or are preparing expediently.
Under the Cold Start or any future Pak-India high intensity war, which can be triggered under any pretext, it would be impossible to keep the conflict bilateral or even conventional. Events can radically get out of control with catastrophic fallouts for the region as well as the world. The Indian government and military are getting increasingly radical due to the penetration of “Saffron” ideology of Hindu Zionism. Fascist groups like RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal, led by terrorists of the likes of Bal Thakray have penetrated the mainstream Indian political parties of BJP and Congress as well as the Indian military establishment. The fascist radicalization of Indian military and their political leadership has made India the most dangerous nuclear armed country with declared goals of annihilating Muslims and Pakistan from the region. Whether we like it or not, a final conflict with India is inevitable. It can be delayed or postponed but not avoided. As per Muslim history and holy scriptures and in the sayings of the Holy Prophet (pbuh), this final conflict is called “Ghazwa-e-Hind”, the final war for India! India will start this war and Pakistan will finish it, InshaAllah!
We Muslims, only come on our own when we are threatened. You have created a combined threat against us but never forget the history. For thousands of years, Muslims from the West have been charging and capturing Delhi, and by God we will see you in Delhi very soon! You will start the War, but then you will have no control over it. We will finish it for you!
That is our last message for you! If you have any sense, pay heed. Else, you have been advised!
By God we will cut you down to the size of Sri Lanka!
We have ruled over you for thousand years and we will rule for another thousand!
The year is 2014.
A patriotic and honorable government is in place in Islamabad, which took over in 2010 after a judicial and military coup, after removing a corrupt and incompetent regime, which had brought the country to the brink of disaster. Since the last 4 years, the present government has managed to control the collapse of economy, reduce corruption radically and contain the wave of terrorism to make Pakistan a reasonably stable and strong nation within the Muslim world.
The world is in turmoil all around Pakistan but the Pakistani nation has managed to remain stable and strong. The Kashmir dispute is still simmering and Afghanistan remains in a delicate state without any strong government and with multiple militias controlling the country. There is still a strong presence of Western forces in the Northern regions.
United States and Israel have successfully overrun the entire ME, creating various headless states and smaller principalities or weak client Satellite States in the Muslim heartland in place of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Israel has annexed the entire Palestinian lands and has started constructing colonies and settlements in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt even extending into parts of Saudi Arabia near Tabuk. The entire Gulf region has become an effective US colony with major US bases spread across the entire region having force projection capability into South Asia, Central Asia and South West China. The entire fuel assets and fuel routes from the Gulf and Central Asia are under US and coalition control.
But there are pockets of fierce resistance in every part of occupied ME. Muslim resistance groups and militants have launched massive war of resistance against US presence in the Muslim lands and are proving to be elusive and deadly foes for the US forces. Afghan resistance remains fierce, still bogging down US and NATO occupation forces even after 13 years of occupation. Pakistan has cut down the supply lines of NATO and NATO is forced to find long and expensive routes from Central Asia and via Iran.
The US economy is collapsing at home. Dollar is being abandoned as a currency and a new political alliance of North American Union consisting of Mexico, USA and Canada has come into existence on the pattern of EU with plans for a new currency “Amero” being floated. In dollar terms, US cost of occupation is a staggering $20bn a month with hundreds of casualties and wounded every month. The situation is not stabilizing despite massive injection of US military and economic resources in the region. The quality of life in occupied Muslim lands is getting hopelessly desperate, creating an explosive environment for the US forces present amongst hostile population. Terrorism in the US mainland and Europe has resulted in establishing radical security measures against the local Muslim population, and a mass migration of Muslim immigrants back to their native lands has started due to fears of persecution in America and Europe. Tension between the West and Islam is at all time high since the crusades of the 10th century.
There is also serious friction building between Russia and the United States particularly over establishment of anti-ballistic missile shield by NATO in Eastern Europe, distribution of fuel resources of Caspian and for control of vast economic and military assets in Central Asia. Tension is running high between US backed Georgia and Russia while the US backed Chechens are also taking advantage of Russian weaknesses to launch even more daring raids into the Russian mainland. Relations between Turkish and Russian forces come under a strain when a group of run away Chechens enter Turkey and Russians enter in hot pursuit. Even though Turkey is rediscovering its Islamic identity and is drawing away from NATO, yet NATO threatens to side with Turkey in the standoff and tells the Russians to back off. Thus skirmishes threaten to brew on the European front.
The US economy and military is under tremendous stress. The domestic budget deficit has grown to a staggering 14 trillion dollars, inflation is 12 percent and local jobless figures are at 40 million. The mass migration of millions of skilled Muslims has created a serious crisis of production and growth in industry and economy. Industrial produce has gone down by 40% and market shares lost to powerful emerging economies of China, Far East and India. Global warming, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and snowstorms have damaged over 7 trillion dollars worth of economic infrastructure in just 2 years. The US forces are spread too thin all over the globe – at an estimate of 3 quarters of a million troops, in 120 countries and lands.
There is nervousness and panic in the US government. The security of fuel assets and fuel routes has not produced the desired response in the mainland for economic turnaround. Subsequently, a group of local white Supremacist militia of a doomsday cult, fed up with the policies of the US government, launches a devastating attack on the US power and communication infrastructure, crippling the economy to the tune of many trillion dollars in over a week. The situation becomes desperate for the US government. The US media, under the influence of AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee), the Israeli lobby, starts a massive global propaganda, stating that the attack on US infrastructure has come from Muslim extremists based in the ME and Pak-Afghan region.
Meanwhile, during trade talks with China, the US insists that China reduce duties on US products, strengthen the Yuan and stop influencing economic spheres in the Far East and Asia. The US threatens to stop the Chinese fuel supplies from the Gulf, unless China stops giving subsidy to Chinese goods in Asian and European markets, in order to make way for the Americans products. China threatens to abandon the dollar in international trade and starts dumping from its reserves of over a trillion dollar foreign exchange. US economy takes a fatal dive while the dollar collapses in the international forex market, as all countries start to switch to Gold or other currencies.
Tensions quickly mount and talks break down. The US intercepts bulk oil cargo ships from the Gulf carrying oil for China. China threatens to use force and begins war games in the Taiwanese straits. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan feel intimidated and ask US to interfere after failing to convince China. The situation aggravates around the Korean Peninsula as well, as a North Korean Destroyer is sunk by a South Korean mine. The Chinese war games are taken as an act of hostility by the US, and Pacific fleet is mobilized to counter the rapidly building Chinese military presence in the region. The Chinese vice Premier visits Uighur autonomous region and is assassinated by a US backed Uighur separatist group. China demands extradition of the groups’ leader from the US, but is refused and the situation becomes critical between US and China in Asia.
Pakistan and India maintain their present status quo in bilateral relations in 2014. Kashmir remains a sore issue and even though militancy in the valley has died down considerably, the clashes along the LoC and working boundary are a routine. India has made progress in leaps and bounds in the economic and military spheres and continues to pose serious challenges to Pakistan in both spheres, but the nuclear deterrent maintains a credible balance despite very bitter terms between the two countries.
India remains the main ally and military beneficiary of the US. The US has cultivated India as a counter balance against China in case of a US-China conflict scenario and to counter balance Pakistan for fear of an “Islamic” nuclear threat. Though India had used the US military and economic dependence upon Delhi to build its own military potential as a regional civilization capable of challenging even US and China independently, its own desires were not to take sides in any US-China conflict. Therefore, India has now decided to play a game of ‘wait and watch’, as to which civilization survives or weakens to allow the breakout of the Hindu civilization in Asia. India has given military bases to US for operations in East Asia but has not committed to fight alongside US against China. The US is deeply concerned at this arrangement.
Since the past few years, the Naxalite Maoists within India, backed by China, had become the greatest internal security challenge for the Indian federation, overrunning almost 40% of India in the “Red Corridor”. Indian army has been fighting a losing war against the Maoists in the thick jungles of rural India. Concurrently, the Sikh movement has also gained momentum. In the seven sister states in the East, rebellions are already simmering at high levels, putting extreme pressure on the Indian federation.
Despite serious frictions between Pakistan and US/NATO alliance over Afghanistan, Pakistan has constructively engaged with the US and the West. Pakistan also remains a close friend of China and cannot be trusted by the US in a US-China conflict scenario. Even though there is no visible Chinese military presence on Pakistani soil, the proximity of Pakistan and China and their close ties has always been a matter of serious concern for the US. Also, China had provided Pakistan with nuclear technology and long range anti-Ship missiles which gave Pakistan the ability to choke all the fuel supplies and shipping from the Gulf if a US flotilla decides to take battle station close to the Chinese mainland. The Chinese presence in Gawadar is being used for spying on the US in the Gulf. Pakistan is indeed an unreliable country from the US perspective.
The US intelligence sources had predicted in 1998 that China would take at least till 2020 to be able to develop enough force projection capability to match the US military presence in Asia and to pose any threat to the US mainland in case of a nuclear exchange. In 1998, the Chinese were extremely inferior to the US in space and satellite warfare, fighter aircrafts, reconnaissance and surveillance, communications, missile defense, naval force projection capability and survival capability in an NBC (nuclear, biological or chemical) warfare environment.
In the year 2002, Russia entered into a strategic defense alliance with China in order to transfer Russian high technology military knowledge of fighter aircraft, missile defense and space warfare to China and the collaboration rapidly polished off a decade of Chinese research and development. The Americans had revised their estimates in 2004 predicting that the Chinese would have the requisite force projection and survival capability against a massive US unconventional strike by 2015. The US military commanders had sent a summary to the White House in 2004 that if China reaches the threshold of its capability to not just only strike the US mainland but also survive a massive counter strike by the US, then it would become almost impossible to eliminate the Chinese threat to US interests in the 21st century, within the acceptable cost and collateral damage. The US has already devised a strategy to hit the Chinese Asian interests before China could cross that red line and become a serious unmanageable threat for the US.
Provoked by the domestic economic meltdown due to the collapse of the US dollar, Chinese stubbornness to concede grounds in trade talks, threatened by the radical development of Chinese capability to strike at US Space assets and the mainland, the US is already contemplating plans to hit China first with a massive nuclear strike on the Chinese mainland.
Almost at the same time, the BJP is ruling India with hardliners from RSS virtually controlling the Indian State through their Prime Minister Narender Modi, the butcher of Gujarat. Col Prohit, the notorious Indian military intelligence officer responsible for Samjhauta Express blasts and known for his links with Hindu Saffron brigades, has been released by the courts for want of evidence and is now serving as the head of Pakistan Desk in the Indian secret service RAW.
The Indian Cabinet meeting is being held in Delhi. A group of 6 Naxalite Maoists stealthily sneak into the parliament and open fire, killing over 100 people from the government, security forces and media. BJP immediately puts the blame on Kashmiri groups and blame ISI and Pakistan. The Indian cabinet orders mobilization of Indian forces. Under the Cold Start doctrine, Independent Battle Groups (IBG’s) of the Indian army are secretly told to warm up for an immediate invasion, while India launches a massive global diplomatic and media campaign to isolate Pakistan. On the surface, the Indians keep the crisis on diplomatic and media plains and send high level delegations to Islamabad for negotiations, giving the perception to Pakistan that the crisis can be resolved diplomatically; but on ground, the invasion is ordered within 24 hours of the Indian delegation’s return to Delhi.
The Armageddon is about to begin……
Day 1 minus 1:
In Washington, emergency war council is meeting in the White House headed by the US President and is attended by, amongst many others, the Commanders of Central Command (CentCom), USEUCOM and Pacific Command (USPACOM). Certain crises issues are hotly debated:
The US forces are already spread too thin in the ME and Asia for a concentrated force projection against China. Carrier battle groups were too vulnerable to Chinese missiles. With serious crisis also building in Western Europe, substantial US forces from Europe could not be moved to Asian theatres.
The US does not have any close proximity military base to China in Asia. Diego Garcia and Australia are too far and so are the ME bases. South Korea is too close for military significance and survival. Philippines, Taiwan, Pakistan and India are the closest options.
The thinning of US forces, vulnerability of Carrier battle groups and non-availability of close proximity military bases, leave the only option of long range ballistic missiles, with decisive and ruthless strike capability against the Chinese mainland for swift, total and deadly destruction of the Chinese military and economic potential; incapacitating China from launching any retaliatory strike against the US mainland or the US forces present in Asia. The US plans to launch an initial strike of 30 low to high yield tactical nuclear ballistic missiles in the first wave, and then launching a second wave of 20 missiles, after initial damage assessment within 12 hours. The Chinese casualties are estimated to be close to a 100 million in the first wave, with over 400 million wounded or radiation exposed. The second wave is supposed to take out any remaining survivors or military infrastructure within the East, Mid and Northern Chinese region. The total number of Chinese casualties is expected to be more than almost half the population.
• Once the question of Chinese engagement strategy is resolved, the attention is turned towards the Chinese allies, especially Russia, North Korea and Pakistan. Russia is not deemed a nuclear threat and North Korea will already be taken out in the initial wave; leaving Pakistan as the core issue for US command in their war against China.
• It is decided in the meeting that the US will ask Pakistan to side against China in the war. In case Pakistan refuses, neutrality will not be trusted or accepted and Pakistan will be treated as an enemy State, to be taken out on day one to avoid giving any advantage to the Chinese. However, in very close proximity of Pakistan lies India, and the US bases in the Gulf and Central Asia create a dilemma for the US commanders. Any high yield nuclear strike on Pakistan will create serious blast and fallout effects, which will have very serious consequences for US interests, assets, troops and war capability in India, the ME and the Gulf. Pakistan has to be taken out using very low yield nuclear strikes at selected places, combined with massive conventional strikes against defense and economic infrastructure, for total incapacitation in order to prevent any share in defense of China or causing any harm to US interests.
• News of Indian mobilization against Pakistan comes as a surprise for both US and China. Another nuclear war in the region is now inevitable. China is already mobilizing against possible US hostile military action. The Indian military moves against Pakistan threaten Chinese interests gravely. The US cannot get involved to diffuse tensions between Pakistan and India due to its own rapidly building crisis with China. Pakistan has also started its mobilization rapidly as Indian IBGs (independent battle groups) menacingly lurk around the border. Sensing the hostile intentions of India and the fact that the US cannot be trusted, Pakistan urgently requests China to get involved.
• An unexpected Chinese warning to India has taken both US and India by surprise. Sensing the Indian mood to act as a US proxy and to attack Pakistan, China warns India not to act as a staging post for US strikes on the Chinese mainland or on Pakistan as any such act, according to the Chinese, will be taken as being hostile, and India will be ruthlessly targeted by China. Despite strong US assurances to Delhi over incapability of China to strike India after US first strikes, India refuses to openly side with the US in the war. It is, however, agreed that India will maintain an international face of neutrality but covertly support the US with intelligence, logistics and even bases once China is totally destroyed. Also, India is tasked to attack and overrun Pakistan after the initial US strikes to make sure that Pakistan remains excluded in the main US-China war. It is a win-win situation for India. They could remain neutral in case of a nuclear exchange, get Pakistan destroyed through US and then walk over to capture the country, which had been their dream since the past 67 years.
• It is time to talk to the Pakistani President. The US President picks up the phone and connects the Presidency in Islamabad. “Mr. President, this is the President of the United States of America. Our country is facing hostile action from the People’s Republic of China. The Whole free world is siding with us in the war against this hostility. I want to know – Is Pakistan with us in this war or against us? Neutrality is not an option, have I made myself clear here?” After a brief pause, the President of Pakistan replies, “Mr. President, Pakistan is a peace loving country, which is already being threatened by India. Pakistan has its own wars to fight and wishes to remain neutral in the US-China war. But any act of hostile intent against us will be considered as an act of war and we shall defend ourselves with all our might. Instead Pakistan will urge the United States to use their influence on India to refrain from initiating any hostilities”. “Very well Mr. President”, replies the US President, “We appreciate your desire to stay neutral in this war. We will just make sure of that. India is our ally and we shall surely try to influence Indian decision of threatening Pakistan”….. and the line drops ……………….
• Even before the conversation is over, orders have been given to launch strikes against Pakistan and China within the next four hours. It is decided that since India will be available to neutralize Pakistan, the US will target Pakistan, using conventional weapons only to decapitate and incapacitate the Pakistani leadership and critical defense and logistic infrastructures. The Indian forces are given clearance by the US to cross the international border and mop up the remaining Pakistani forces after the initial US air and missile strike.
• Messages are sent to Moscow to stay neutral in this conflict or else Russia will also be attacked with nuclear weapons and annihilated. The Russian President does not see any strategic advantage to join the hostilities, therefore, assures the US of compliance.
The Central Command and Indian army are jointly given the task to use massive conventional means to destroy the entire military and economic war potential of Pakistan. While the US and NATO will use their superior air power and satellite image processing to locate and detect possible deployment of Pakistan’s nuclear assets, Indians will be tasked to secure the ground and cripple the strategic and conventional forces of Pakistan. According to plan, the Pakistan air operation is to be concluded within 24 hours after the first wave of strikes.
Against China, the Pacific Command is to deploy a massive nuclear barrage using Air Force and ICBM (Intercontinental ballistic missile) to decisively crush any resistance potential of the Chinese, before the US ground forces with NBC protective battle dresses can move in to secure the remains. Due to massive deployment of nuclear forces, the time to eliminate the Chinese resistance is estimated to be within 24 hours after the second wave, which is to be launched 12 hours after the first. The US troops will move into the Chinese mainland after 48 hours to cater for blast and fallout effects.
The attacks are launched simultaneously against Pakistan and China without warning, while the UN Security Council was discussing the crisis. The US deploys the doctrine of pre-emptive strikes and takes China and Pakistan by complete surprise. Indian (Independent battle groups) IBG’s roll into Pakistan simultaneously, through multiple points from the working boundary near Sialkot to Pannu Aqil in Sindh.
The first wave of 30 nuclear capped, Satellite guided, deep ground penetrating precision ICBM and cruise missiles are launched against China at 900 hrs. China takes the hits directly with the most devastating effects. 30 million die instantly, while another 70 million deaths occur within a couple of hours due to radiation, heat, earthquake and blast effects. Over 300 million wounded go into a state of shock and exposure and begin their agonizing wait for death within the next 48 hours due to radiation over exposure, fallout effects and poisoned air. Deathly silence enshrouds the entire country, as satellite pictures only show massive cloud and dust cover reducing visibility to zero. At 930 hrs in the morning, it is pitch darkness over China as the sun has been totally blocked by black clouds of radioactive dust. The satellite imagery is being hampered by the dark clouds and battle damage assessment is not possible. The second strike of ICBM’s is delayed by another 8 hours, till proper target assessment can be done. This delay will prove to be fatal for the Americans later on.
At 900 hrs on the same day, more than 400 American, NATO and Indian Stealth bombers and fighters launch a massive surprise air attack on Pakistan from the US and Indian bases in the region. Pakistan is not prepared for such an eventuality and is caught off guard. Pakistan Air Force is severely handicapped as the latest F-16 block 52 and their BVR(Beyond-visual-range) missiles were programmed by the US so as not to target Western aircraft, making them almost defenseless and futile under such a scenario.
Since nuclear weapons were not to be deployed, 15,000lbs Daisy Cutters and massive 22,000lbs conventional bombs are used extensively. The attacks last throughout the day, non-stop in waves backed by precision strikes by cruise missiles. Targets included critical nerve points of Pakistan’s security and economic infrastructure:
• Karachi ports and Naval Shipyards.
• Steel Mills.
• Karachi city itself for chaos and destruction, using daisy cutters.
• National Refinery and oil terminals.
• Naval battle ships and coastal defenses.
• Karachi airport.
• Railway lines in interior Sindh.
• Hub Dam to destroy water supply of the city.
• All Corp HQ’s, JS HQ, GHQ, Naval HQ and PAF HQ.
• All fighter bases and airports of the country.
• All Dams including Tarbela and Mangla in order to disrupt power supply in the country.
• POF installations around Pindi including HIT and other defense industries.
• All railway junctions.
• All strategic bridges over rivers.
• Massive bombardment of cities of Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Islamabad, Pindi, Peshawar and Quetta including the industrial areas.
• All tele-communication centers and grids in cites and countryside.
• All field formations deployed along the Eastern front against India.
• All known strategic force centers and missile batteries.
• Kahuta and NESCOM installations.
The damage caused in Pakistan by these massive bombing is catastrophic and results in:
• Complete destruction of all fighter bases and airports.
• Complete breakup of communication links between various Corps, HQ’s and field formations.
• Complete destruction of all naval forces and bases.
• No power in the entire country.
• No water in major cities, no gas and massive damage.
After day 1 of the attack, the US forces withdraw to evaluate the damage as the Indian forces begin rolling in, crossing the border on various axes. Their targets include:
• Penetration from Kashmir, cut off KKH (Karakoram Highway) and try to capture Murree heights and attack Islamabad.
• Penetration from Lahore and capturing the city.
• Penetration from Narowal-Zafarwal sector and capturing Sialkot.
• Attacking Gujranwala.
• Penetration from the desert and capturing Multan and Bahawalpur.
• Penetration from Sindh, cutting off the national highway and attacking Pannu Aqil and also penetration from Khokrapar to move on to Hyderabad while the Indian Navy would blockade and attack Karachi from sea.
• Foil attempts by Pakistan army to link up between various Corps and eliminate each Corps by surrounding it around various Corp HQ’s on Pakistan’s Eastern front.
• Prevent any possible launch of Pakistani missiles which might be deployed by isolated units. India is using space sensing technology provided by the US.
• Just like China, entire Pakistani state is under severe shock and almost incapacitated. Mercifully, though the loss is terrible in terms of material and resources, the human loss is only in tens of thousands and not millions due to conventional weapons being deployed.
• The US and India are aware that they cannot take out all of Pakistan’s nuclear assets and missiles in one strike. They instead focus on taking out the delivery mechanisms, PAF, command and control systems, military leadership and nerve points of the country to gain enough time in order to make rapid ground progress by the Indian forces to physically move in and first isolate and then capture the entire Pakistani government, armed forces and strategic assets. They never expect to meet any resistance from the Pakistani forces after the devastating first day strikes against both China and Pakistan by US/NATO/Indian air forces. The Indian ground forces cut through the borders at seven theatres and make rapid advances into the Pakistani territory at the end of day 1. Small separated detachments of Pakistani forces put up fierce resistance but are either overrun or have to withdraw under massive pressure. Victory seems inevitable and close for the invading forces.
Both US and India are dead wrong!!
China has survived the initial holocaust. 50 years of preparation for nuclear blast and fallout protection and investment in civil defense programs has finally begun to pay off. While the US satellites try to peek through the black radioactive haze over China to do damage assessment, the Chinese fortified command and control bunkers in North West and South Central China, prepare to launch their own missile strikes, spread over the entire world, targeting US interests. The Russian satellite technology has enabled the Chinese to relay the “code red” message to all their overseas assets and nuclear submarines in Asia Pacific, to fight independent wars against all enemy targets.
The Chinese embassy in Islamabad is able to relay the message about joint US-Indian attack on Pakistan and possible use of Indian bases by US forces. India becomes a hostile country and is immediately added to the target list by China’s strategic missile command.
In 2008, China, to the horror of US strategists, had acquired the Star Wars capability by successfully destroying a satellite in space from an earth launched missile. China had rapidly built on their capability and by 2010 had developed the capability to locate, target and destroy almost all satellites over their skies. If the US satellites were to be taken out, the US will be virtually blind over China and its observation and spying systems, as well as tracking GPS systems will fail to work, making the missiles and fighter jets inaccurate and unguided over hostile skies.
Now China launches its first wave of attacks on US satellites, destroying all of them, making it impossible for the US to observe China anymore for battle damage assessment or to monitor the Chinese military movement. The US is now virtually blind to fight a nuclear war. The Chinese have even managed to explode an electromagnetic bomb or E-bomb device in space, which has destroyed all other international GPS (Global Positioning System) and tracking satellites over China, making it impossible for any force to use the satellite guidance and tracking facility.
The Chinese launch a second wave of 23 nuclear- capped ICBM. With all satellites over China having been destroyed, the US is not able to detect the incoming missiles, and once over the American skies, it is too late even when the radars pick their trail. To the horror of the US tracking radars, 18 high yield warheads are heading towards the US mainland. The US missile defense shield is not capable to knock out all of them. At best it can only take out 3 incoming missiles, while the rest are sure to make ground contact all across the United States. The Chinese have been mercilessly selective in making the hits, as the entire East to West Coast is about to experience an apocalyptic event! Four low yield, deep penetrating missiles are also launched into India – hitting Delhi, Bangalore, Calcutta and Madras. One missile is launched against the US bases in Australia.
A Chinese nuclear submarine, lurking in the Indian Ocean, South of Sri Lanka, launches another missile into the South China Sea between Taiwan, South Korea and Philippines, in an innovative use of nuclear power. A huge Tsunami tidal wave of over 200 meters rises from the sea, moving at 300mph from the epicenter in the Ocean, taking the entire US Carrier battle group, with 200 war ships and over 40,000 troops to the bottom in less than five minutes. The huge wave then moves on to envelope Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Philippines in their entirety, as well as many parts of Indonesia and stretches as far as North of Australia.
Out of the 18 incoming Chinese missiles, 17 make ground contact in the US, unleashing a devastation even the US is not prepared for. One lands in the deep Pacific Ocean, 30 miles from San Francisco. The St.Andrews fault line is triggered due to shock waves, causing the entire West coast to flatten under immeasurable seismic force, followed by a tidal wave sweeping 150 miles inland, washing the entire West coast into the sea. The death toll from the first strikes is estimated to be around 40 million, with over 100 million wounded, incapacitated or radiation exposed, without any power, water or shelter. The earthquakes, tidal wave and subsequent fires have destroyed the entire power and communication structure as well. The US is almost back in the Stone Age, for all practical purposes.
With the destruction of the entire US fleet and forces in the Pacific and Asia, there is no more launching of the second wave of missiles on China, as the forces in the Gulf are neither armed with nuclear weapons, nor have any satellite support to launch a conventional missile or air attack. The war of missiles between China and US comes to a brisk end on day 2, with both sides counting their losses and trying to evaluate the holocaust.
On the other hand, half a million Indian troops and their armoured divisions and artillery support, which had entered into Pakistan, have survived the nuclear attack on Indian cities. However, they have lost all contact with their respective HQ’s; the Indian army is now on its own inside Pakistan, without air cover and even satellite communication and imagery. India cannot use nuclear missiles against Pakistan for fear of destroying its own army. It is going to be a bloody battle for survival for the Indian forces inside Pakistan in a conventional war to be fought on irregular and asymmetrical patterns, on hostile ground and on exterior lines, with vulnerable supplies and without the C4I2. After having made early advances into the Pakistani territory, the Indian army goes battle- blind and panic immediately starts to set in. The entire Indian command and control system is gone and there is no one to decide about the target selection or give orders to launch attacks.
The Indian naval forces in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Bombay, having blocked Karachi, are now preparing for a landing near the city. But the entire plan is thrown into complete disarray after the devastating Chinese strikes against the US and Indian forces. The whole of India is under a devastating radioactive cloud cover, with initial casualties of over 100 million due to blast effects, and over 30 million dying due to exposure and radiation. There are no emergency services and the entire State infrastructure has collapsed. The entire cabinet and government have evaporated in the strike on Delhi. Effectively, India is a headless State, with half a million of its troops attacking major Pakistani cities deep inside Pakistan. This is the time for a Pakistani counter attack. Fortunately, Pakistan had prepared for such a scenario back in 2010, and has a complete plan to counter attack.
The Pakistani response:
In 2010, Pakistan had launched an ambitious plan to counter such a scenario, which included:
• Re-writing the war doctrine so that each Corp could fight independent theatre wars, without being in communication with other sectors of war or without being in contact with the GHQ. Each Corp Commander was authorized to wage independent wars with even a command and control system at his disposal for launch of strategic weapons.
• Emphasizing on fortress defenses around major cities with massive survival capability in order to withstand not just conventional bombings but also great survival probability under a nuclear fallout scenario. Pakistan had initiated the biggest civil defense program in Asia in 2010 with underground shelters, compulsory military training for students and massive defense constructions around cities for fortress defenses.
• Even the countryside was dug into create massive defense constructions and underground tunnels, bunkers and shelters for a sustained guerilla war and survival under nuclear fallout effects.
• Creation of a strategic nuclear proof PAF and missile reserve in the mountains of Baluchistan, hidden from the rest of the country with 150 fighters safely tucked away with complete nuclear command and control systems and war heads. This reserve is now going to be the most invaluable asset for Pakistan to assure victory and survival.
• Ample food and fuel stocks were protected in under ground silos and mountain depots for the population and armed forces.
• Acquiring of nuke powered submarine with nuclear armed cruise missiles. This was deployed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Yemen for secrecy and stealth action.
The Indian army detachments are neither in contact with each other nor with their HQ’s and are hopelessly stuck to fight independent wars within Pakistan. The Chinese nuclear strikes and elimination of the entire Indian government has demoralized it beyond recovery. But a segment of the Indian army insists upon moving forward to capture Pakistani cities. In the end, fierce fighting breaks out between the advancing Indian army and Pakistani defenders. The effects of nuclear fallout and radioactive clouds are now being felt over Pakistan, as anyone out in the open is dangerously close to death. The Pakistan army decides to wait out the period in their fortress defenses, as the Indian advancing army remains exposed in the open trenches and bunkers. With supply lines cut and heavy exposure to radioactive clouds, the war fighting capability of Indians is rapidly reduced. But they press on and though they have made major strides inside Pakistan, even capturing Sialkot and Lahore, and reaching the gates of Hyderabad, they are being met with fierce resistance by the Pakistan army which has changed the fighting mode into unconventional, irregular, asymmetric warfare at these places and has also dug into the fortress defenses in all other cities. The Indian advance has now come to a halt as their army detachments are being surrounded.
Now Pakistan has to respond. No one in the US, India or Israel is aware of Pakistan’s strategic air reserve. It comes as a total surprise. A squadron of F-16′s is launched to attack the Indian navy at sea using anti-Ship missiles. Pakistani submarines have already attacked and sunk the Indian aircraft carrier, and have effectively lifted off the Indian naval blockade. The PAF planes and subs destroy yet another 17 cruisers, destroyers and frigates.
The escaping US armada from the Gulf is attacked by both Pakistani and Chinese subs in Indian Ocean, and by the PAF fighters from their secret base in Baluchistan.
After 1 week:
The actual hostilities between China and US continue only for a couple of more days. Both are totally devastated to continue any further. The US announces a total withdrawal from Asia and Gulf to the mainland, where civil wars have broken out between federating States. With no food or electricity for the people, Martial Law is declared in the US, as riots and anarchy take over, however, even this cannot prevent the disintegration of the USA. The American civilization has almost ceased to exist.
China suffered terribly too but manages to survive, thanks to decades of investment in nuclear survival capabilities. The Chinese rapidly begin the task of rebuilding their country.
India, which had scored major victories in the early days against Pakistan, is devastated by the Chinese strikes on the mainland with half a million of its army cut off deep inside Pakistan. Desperate for survival, without supplies and separated from each other, the Indian commanders are thrown into panic as the Pakistan army, tribal militants and local population surround and block all escape routes. The entire Indian army’s Independent battle groups (IBG’s), which had rolled into Pakistan, are decimated and most of their IBG equipment is captured, intact, by the Pakistani army. The fierce fighting has been a bloodbath. No prisoners are taken.
There is chaos and anarchy in India, as the country begins to breakup on ethnic, tribal and regional lines. The Naxalites take control of the “Red corridor” and declare independence. Sikhs rebel in East Punjab and declare the State of Khalistan and Tamils secede as well. The Seven Sister States rebel also and declare their own free mini States.
The Pakistan army re-deploys the captured Indian equipment and armoured divisions, along with its own armoured divisions and moves into India. A fierce cavalry battle at Panipat decides the fate of India. Pakistan army moves on to capture the already devastated city of Delhi without further resistance. The world hears the announcement of “Radio Pakistan Delhi”, and India once again comes under the Muslim rule.
On the spiritual plain, the faith in Allah and the belief in the saying of the Prophet (pbuh) that a Muslim army will once again capture India, the Pakistani nation were galvanized with the emotional and religious zeal to fight the invading Indian army. Despite severe losess of men, material and territory, their morale and faith remained unshakable and a fiercely proud nation gelled together to fight back for its dignity and honor and reclaimed its glory.
On a more physical level, Pakistan survived this war due to wisdom and foresight of its leadership which had foreseen such an eventuality back in 2010. The survival capability of the nation under nuclear environment, the decentralization of the armed forces into various commands, the revised military doctrine which allowed separate unconventional asymmetrical wars against multiple nations, creation of strategic PAF and missile reserves, force projection capability beyond 3000km and security of food and fuel resources, even under siege, allowed Pakistan to stage a remarkable comeback when all the enemies had written it off. Pakistan has still paid a heavy price with 10 million dead and over 20 million wounded and sick, but the country survives, regroups, re-organizes, re-captures and expands its territory into former India and then, by 2018, rises to become the global power, leading the Muslim world into a collective security and political alliance called the United States of Islam!!