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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Pakistan and 2011 what is the future?

Pakistan has a problem in it has a huge army it can't afford. It is effectively fighting a two front war on top of an  insurrection. It needs to solve its India issues so it can ensure that if it turns its back on Kashmir, India won't push the proverbial buttons. 
The Taliban forces have been effectively forced out of Afghan and as the Afghan army comes up to strength the Taliban will continuously fall back or terrorist type attacks instead of open warfare. They will instead try and create an autonomous region within the north west frontier provinces. (Where bin laden and crew are hiding in open site). 
It is also responsible for counter terrorism, spying on potential Pakistan enemy's and the security of the nuclear and space forces of Pakistan.
The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (more commonly known as Inter-Services Intelligence or simply by its initials ISI) is Pakistan's premier intelligence agency. It is the largest of the three intelligence agencies of Pakistan, the other being the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Military Intelligence (MI).

The ISI could be easily tied to the Mumbai attacks, possibly 9/11, support of al Qeada, support for the afghan Taliban (Mullah Omar lives openly in Quetta), as well as the American fight against the Taliban and al Qeada. The ISI is also supporting the Pakistan Taliban and the army that is fighting it. The Pakistani Taliban is also attributed to the assassination of Presidental candidate Bhutto.

The Pakistan secret service agencies also have a problem as it has been playing both sides for so long it no longer knows what side is right or wrong. 

As examples:
In 1982 the ISI, CIA and Mossad carried out a covert transfer of Soviet-made weapons and Lebanese weapons captured by the Israelis during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982 and their subsequent transfer to Pakistan and then into Afghanistan.

(1982–1997) ISI are believed to have access to Osama bin Laden in the past. ISI played a central role in the U.S.-backed guerrilla war to oust the Soviet Army from Afghanistan in the 1980s. That Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-backed effort flooded Pakistan with weapons and with Afghan, Pakistani and Arab "mujahideen", who were motivated to fight as a united force protecting fellow Muslims in Soviet occupied Afghanistan. The CIA relied on the ISI to train fighters, distribute arms, and channel money. The ISI trained about 83,000 Afghan mujahideen between 1983 and 1997, and dispatched them to Afghanistan. B. Raman of the South Asia Analysis Group, an Indian think-tank, claims that the Central Intelligence Agency through the ISI promoted the smuggling of heroin into Afghanistan in order to turn the Soviet troops into heroin addicts and thus greatly reducing their fighting potential.

In 1994 the Afghan Taliban regime that the ISI supported after 1994 to suppress warlord fighting and in hopes of bringing stability to Afghanistan proved too rigid in its Islamic interpretations and too fond of the Al-Qaeda based on its soil. Despite receiving large sums of aid from Pakistan, the Taliban leader Mullah Omar is reported to have insulted a visiting delegation of Saudi Prince Sultan and an ISI general asking that the Taliban turn over bin Laden to Saudi Arabia.  Following the 9/11 attack on the United States allegedly by Al-Qaeda, Pakistan felt it necessary to cooperate with the US and the Northern Alliance.

 In the 2000s the ISI is suspicious about CIA attempted penetration of Pakistan nuclear asset, and CIA intelligence gathering in the Pakistani law-less tribal areas. Based on these suspicion, it is speculated that ISI is pursuing a counter-intelligence against CIA operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In July 2008, American intelligence agencies said that ISI officers helped plan the 2008 Indian embassy bombing in Kabul. They said that the ISI officers had not been renegades, indicating that their actions might have been authorized by superiors.

In 2010 a new report by the London School of Economics (LSE) claimed to provide the most concrete evidence yet that the ISI is providing funding, training and sanctuary to the Taliban insurgency on a scale much larger than previously thought. The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan and concluded that Pakistan's relationship with the insurgents ran far deeper than previously realised. Some of those interviewed suggested that the organization even attended meetings of the Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura.

During the Mumbai attacks of 2008 Ajmal Kasab, (was the only attacker who was captured alive) disclosed that the attackers were members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based militant organisation, considered a terrorist organisation by India, Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations,  among others.  The Indian government said that the attackers came from Pakistan, and their controllers were in Pakistan. On 7 January 2009, Pakistan's Information Minister Sherry Rehman officially accepted Ajmal Kasab's nationality as Pakistani.  On 12 February 2009, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik asserted that parts of the attack had been planned in Pakistan.

So as one can see there is a problem.

The real question is how long can Pakistan government, armed forces and the ISI can continue this game... Strategically.... Financially and morally
Potential future for 2011:

Unable to pay its armed forces it will turn on its master as it has in the past.  The question is can the country of Pakistan hold itself together?

As the only Muslim atomic power the US will be forced to prop up any government or security system (ISI) because the other option is too frightening to contemplate.   As Afghanistan moves from a failed state to a third world democracy the fiscal, the religious and military enemies will move back into Pakistan.

India may move on consolidating Kashmir or an alliance with Afghan and again the Pakistan government and people will feel trapped and lash out.

Will Pakistan become a failed state and can the world afford the consequences?  
A successful, secure Pakistan is in every ones best interests.  
A Central Asia that is capable, economically secure, strategically secure and able to be self determinate will help the world in 2011.  

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